Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device.
The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have sweatily argued on this forum. Personally, I'm not convinced there's much of a difference between these models at this point. The harness is what takes these random and hallucinogenic models and make them into something deterministic and useful.
Zababa 7 minutes ago [-]
The thing about not much difference between models and the harness making them deterministic and useful is wrong. Also models have different strengths and weaknesses and some are better at almost everything by a large margin compared to others.
As for your speculation, I think it's hinging on some companies releasing models for free or no big differences between models. In a world with hyperscalers and companies training models you can quickly recreate Anthropic or OpenAI by having an hyperscaler ally with a model training company, train a good/a better model, and not release it.
cma 18 minutes ago [-]
You can run the same harness on fable, opus, sonnet, and see a huge difference between them. It is true the harness is important, and openai has begun encryption its instructions to swarmed sub-agents instead of just encrypting the chain of thought, but the model is still important at this stage.
Alpha3031 13 minutes ago [-]
Referent of "the models are meaningfully different" reads as <top closed, top open> rather than <top closed, cheaper closed> to me, so I'm not sure why we'd be comparing Fable vs Opus/Sonnet or Sol vs Terra rather than the same against Kimi K3.
Zababa 6 minutes ago [-]
Haven't tried Kimi K3 for now but there was a huge difference between GPT 5.6/Fable and GLM 5.2/Kimi K2.7 that were previous frontier open models.
ActionHank 12 minutes ago [-]
This will only delay the inevitable. Sitting on some magic prompts is hardly the moat they need.
brunooliv 6 minutes ago [-]
This is really insane to me.
There's nothing practical about open-source models yet that makes them even remotely comparable to closed frontier models.
All the hype around GLM, Qwen, now Kimi.... Are people really this naive that they believe these reports or, more worringly, are people NOT using these models and seeing the HUGE gap that still exists?
Take a task, any medium-sized task, decently scoped that you'd trust to give to Sonnet to finish without a hitch. Now give it to ANY open-source frontier model and watch them struggle and go in circles while failing tool calls and randomly assuming things.
Open-source is and has been amazing but its so hard to deploy reliably and at scale and there's still big problems in the underlying models with instruction following and tool calling that makes it basically unusable for production workloads at a decent price point...
foolswisdom 2 minutes ago [-]
> Take a task, any medium-sized task, decently scoped that you'd trust to give to Sonnet to finish without a hitch. Now give it to ANY open-source frontier model and watch them struggle and go in circles while failing tool calls and randomly assuming things.
Claude used to be much worse than it is now, just as bad the open weights models are. And the open weights were worse. The labs will also try to keep the lead, but at some point people start seeing real value from open models. Maybe you say they're not ready yet for medium tasks, but everyone sees the writing on the wall.
seany 2 minutes ago [-]
If your doing things the closed models won't let you do; its the whole ball game.
The design and layout made it harder to read than it needed to be.
Regardless, the inference costs dropping almost 50× is really amazing to see. And now Kimi K3 release has shown how open models are getting closer to the frontier level already. Open source AI is moving a lot faster than Anthropic and OpenAI would have expected lol.
latexr 10 minutes ago [-]
Quick fix for the font, which many people are (rightly) complaining about.
The issue is that all of the text is a quote, and that renders enormous. That’s probably fine for a tiny quote amongst more text, but here it is jarring.
jdw64 23 minutes ago [-]
The UI is really hard on the eyes. Personally, I think the font size is way too big, and the animation timing feels off. If this is a benchmark page and not a product page, I feel like the information should be scannable at a glance. The UX is bad.
100percentjake 5 minutes ago [-]
I'm unsure what it is about AI developers seemingly not having eyeballs. The Hermes Agent website is absolutely eye-searing and the application itself resembles some sort of weird "RETVRN" greek-styled travel agent website.
Feels like a mobile website that was never optimized for desktop usage.
13 minutes ago [-]
marcuskaz 28 minutes ago [-]
It appears open models were used to create this slop.
That opening is so hard to understand what they are trying to say, from the font and how it's written. It took me several times rereading to even grasp.
Plus the article is filled with cryptic things like:
Open ships easy.
Open deploys hard.
What?! Is it a meta answer to "the state of open source AI" question?
garretraziel 21 minutes ago [-]
I think it’s supposed to mean “open source is easily shipped, but open source is hard to deploy”? Or perhaps “deploys hard” is a figure of speach, as in “we are deploying this open source and we are deploying it /hard/“? I don’t know, it’s not good.
azangru 23 minutes ago [-]
From the title of a chart:
> The venture-funded open-source ecosystem: total disclosed funding, USD M
> Bars grow as you scroll.
The bars, in fact, don't grow as you scroll. And I don't even see why they should.
gen2brain 3 minutes ago [-]
On my device, bars grow as I scroll. I want your feature, being able to just scroll the static page without elements jumping around.
yjftsjthsd-h 10 minutes ago [-]
> The bars, in fact, don't grow as you scroll. And I don't even see why they should.
On my device, they grow as I scroll to them.
Cuuugi 28 minutes ago [-]
Maybe its the wildfire smoke in my eyes, but that font choice feels aggressive.
aprilthird2021 14 minutes ago [-]
It's AI slop
hypfer 28 minutes ago [-]
This new trend of content appearing while scrolling down is so terrible accessibility-wise, I do not understand how Mozilla of all institutions would do it.
Not every trend needs to be followed. Have some backbone. You receive donations to have that.
___
Apart from the website being - frankly - bullshit, the content is also - frankly - bullshit.
It's just on the frontpage because the title says "open source AI".
azangru 16 minutes ago [-]
> This new trend of content appearing while scrolling down is so terrible accessibility-wise, I do not understand how Mozilla of all institutions would do it.
Could you explain what is wrong with the accessibility of this page? All the content is included in the html payload, so it is accessible to screen readers and text-based browsers; and as for the "reveal" effect, it seems to respect user's choice of "prefers reduced motion" and is disabled when that is user's preference.
hypfer 14 minutes ago [-]
> it seems to respect user's choice of "prefers reduced motion".
Cool, that I didn't check, because it is impossible to enable that setting, as it breaks _huge_ amounts of websites.
I'm not aware of a way to enable it selectively, but one could also just display the content at all times. It's a static page. It's static content. None of this makes any sense.
___
The idea behind that style of gradual reveal is probably some kind of storytelling, but the only story it tells is that mozilla is wasting donations on people with incorrect opinions that could be used on.. idk not building torment nexii?
positron26 13 minutes ago [-]
Just like how the web was won?
I think Mozilla is chasing a past formula, but the projection isn't linear enough to remain consistent, and the critical parts of the outcome, utter centralization of the market dominance of the three C's, are left out of the equation.
We might get the consolation prize, a few nerds having competitive alternatives to applaud, but we will be left with the hidden costs: stagnation by bloated market leaders, consumers and businesses pouring trillions of dollars into the commercial offerings while open development wonders where money comes from, and the leakage of these imbalances into political and social spheres.
If we follow a Mozilla template and get to the peak of Mozilla's success at the web, look at what that really is. Facebook, Amazon, Google etc are orthogonal to that equation.
Rendered at 15:16:37 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) with Vercel.
The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have sweatily argued on this forum. Personally, I'm not convinced there's much of a difference between these models at this point. The harness is what takes these random and hallucinogenic models and make them into something deterministic and useful.
As for your speculation, I think it's hinging on some companies releasing models for free or no big differences between models. In a world with hyperscalers and companies training models you can quickly recreate Anthropic or OpenAI by having an hyperscaler ally with a model training company, train a good/a better model, and not release it.
There's nothing practical about open-source models yet that makes them even remotely comparable to closed frontier models.
All the hype around GLM, Qwen, now Kimi.... Are people really this naive that they believe these reports or, more worringly, are people NOT using these models and seeing the HUGE gap that still exists?
Take a task, any medium-sized task, decently scoped that you'd trust to give to Sonnet to finish without a hitch. Now give it to ANY open-source frontier model and watch them struggle and go in circles while failing tool calls and randomly assuming things.
Open-source is and has been amazing but its so hard to deploy reliably and at scale and there's still big problems in the underlying models with instruction following and tool calling that makes it basically unusable for production workloads at a decent price point...
Claude used to be much worse than it is now, just as bad the open weights models are. And the open weights were worse. The labs will also try to keep the lead, but at some point people start seeing real value from open models. Maybe you say they're not ready yet for medium tasks, but everyone sees the writing on the wall.
the pdf is easier to read
Regardless, the inference costs dropping almost 50× is really amazing to see. And now Kimi K3 release has shown how open models are getting closer to the frontier level already. Open source AI is moving a lot faster than Anthropic and OpenAI would have expected lol.
https://hermes-agent.nousresearch.com/
That opening is so hard to understand what they are trying to say, from the font and how it's written. It took me several times rereading to even grasp.
Plus the article is filled with cryptic things like:
What?! Is it a meta answer to "the state of open source AI" question?> The venture-funded open-source ecosystem: total disclosed funding, USD M
> Bars grow as you scroll.
The bars, in fact, don't grow as you scroll. And I don't even see why they should.
On my device, they grow as I scroll to them.
Not every trend needs to be followed. Have some backbone. You receive donations to have that.
___
Apart from the website being - frankly - bullshit, the content is also - frankly - bullshit.
It's just on the frontpage because the title says "open source AI".
Could you explain what is wrong with the accessibility of this page? All the content is included in the html payload, so it is accessible to screen readers and text-based browsers; and as for the "reveal" effect, it seems to respect user's choice of "prefers reduced motion" and is disabled when that is user's preference.
Cool, that I didn't check, because it is impossible to enable that setting, as it breaks _huge_ amounts of websites.
I'm not aware of a way to enable it selectively, but one could also just display the content at all times. It's a static page. It's static content. None of this makes any sense.
___
The idea behind that style of gradual reveal is probably some kind of storytelling, but the only story it tells is that mozilla is wasting donations on people with incorrect opinions that could be used on.. idk not building torment nexii?
I think Mozilla is chasing a past formula, but the projection isn't linear enough to remain consistent, and the critical parts of the outcome, utter centralization of the market dominance of the three C's, are left out of the equation.
We might get the consolation prize, a few nerds having competitive alternatives to applaud, but we will be left with the hidden costs: stagnation by bloated market leaders, consumers and businesses pouring trillions of dollars into the commercial offerings while open development wonders where money comes from, and the leakage of these imbalances into political and social spheres.
If we follow a Mozilla template and get to the peak of Mozilla's success at the web, look at what that really is. Facebook, Amazon, Google etc are orthogonal to that equation.