> I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile and real-world impact I think is quite a bit different. Worth discussing, but I think that's an important distinction.

That's kind of the point I was getting that. That's not really an argument about prediction markets, it's about what things should we be allowed to bet on.

I'm looking at FanDuel right now and I can bet on 1v1 eSports games of FIFA. The bets aren't even just who will win, but it's things like how many goals will a team score or who will score first. During the last Superbowl books were offering bets on things like what color tie the announcers would wear. I get that there's maybe a slight difference between that and betting on what words a sports announcer will say during the broadcast, but IMO, you're splitting hairs. They're both very easily to manipulate and very open to insider trading.

I think you probably agree with this, but IMO, there needs to be two separate conversations. One, are prediction markets sportsbooks by another name? Two, are there certain markets that we should not allow betting on?

Personally, I think the answer to both of those is yes, but I think if you smush them together into one conversation it makes things really messy.

> So you read an article "China disappears random person" and then at the end you click a button and bet whether that person is alive or dead or whatever.

So think really hard about what the problem with this whole concept might be...

Most available data suggests that sports betting is much worse for the people making the bets, as it better targets people with poor impulse control. Bad bets in political markets aren't causing measurable increases in bankruptcy and domestic violence rates (https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-online-sports-gambling-exp...).

First, over 90% of the wagers on Polymarket and Kalshi are already on sports (quoting John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on that one). Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks.

Second, while yes, some of the markets available on prediction markets can push people to do awful things, there are plenty that are harmless. I'm cherry picking to make an extreme point, but I would so much rather have someone betting on what the temperature in Los Angeles is going to be tomorrow on Kalshi than betting on who will win the little league world series on DraftKings.

I support regulation saying certain things should not be allowed to be bet on, but allowing bets on morally questionable things isn't a quality unique to prediction markets.

The core holding was this

> "congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each state is free to act on its own."

No, the SC said the federal government can't outright ban sports betting. The logic was that a ban interferes with states right to legalize sports betting.

(To be clear, it is still an nonsensical decision though. Congress does still have the power to regular gambling under the interstate commerce clause, just not outright ban it)

I have a website I run that is focused on sportsbetting so while I know high level what is legal where, I'm not actually in Minnesota, so I don't know every single detail especially when it comes to what's allowed in person.

My guess would be that either A) that's tribal land and there's an exemption for that in the current laws or B) they have a casino, but don't offer sports betting or C) they only allow sports betting on the property by either requiring all bets to be placed in person or the app they offer is for sportsbetting is geo-fenced to their property (which is how states like WA do it)

I hope someone is. From the bill:

> EFFECTIVE DATE This section is effective August 1, 2026, and applies to crimes committed on or after that date.

> because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit

Traditionally it has not been, but the current CFTC says that 'prediction bets on sports' ARE under their purview. This has not been fully challenged in court, though.

There’s no “house” or “book” aspect to Kalshi. They are nothing more than contracts that are bought and sold between individuals.

This should not be downvoted and is a legitimate criticism. Trump Jr. has a "special advisory role" in both Kalshi and polymarket. It would track with this administration to deploy a rapid defense of a corruption generation market where the current president's son is getting paid off by the two main competitors in the market.

This is true, however many of those arguments are weaker when applied to things for which the outcome is more consequential than the outcome of a sporting game.

No, this doesn't work. Predictions markets can only resolve to things that are publicly verifiable, so any leaked information is information that was destined to become public anyway. Furthermore, the leaker is disincentivized to leak in such a way that the act of leaking could compromise their insider knowlege; the structure of the markets means that leakers don't want you to have this information in any way that opponents could usefully invalidate.

They're just gambling. I'm not trying to argue for or against gambling here, but please stop trying to delude yourselves into thinking these gambling sites are anything other than gambling.

But they don't get secrets out, they just make a bet? Show me any information like this on any of the prediction markets...

Those markets create pressure to ensure that real physical goods and useful services are priced accurately. Prediction “markets“ are in my estimation no different than roulette.

If you cross your eyes hard enough, you could claim that roulette gambling provides economic pressure to ensure that roulette wheels are balanced evenly. But when the roulette wheel is Vanah White’s dress color, what does that mean? Charitably, it’s a fun pass time. Through a dystopian lens, prediction markets pressure all public figures to play a kind of Keynsian Beauty Contest with their own behavior. Like social cooling for the celebrity/owning class.

Those are not the same as prediction markets

Yes, they are. Accurate prediction is rewarded in every market, for every asset or asset class. There are adjacent order benefits (I live in my home, I eat corn, I have a say in how a company is run) but these are never divorced from the impact of prediction and prediction in aggregate is just a crowdsourced leading indicator of value; oil spikes the moment a missile hits Iran not because the 2 are explicitly linked, but because the market has predicted the effect on the flow of that oil over some subsequent timeframe and priced itself accordingly

Stocks are shares of ownership. Now, in practice many people buy them as bets, but even those aren't really predictions. Prediction markets are time-boxed all-or-nothing plays. You are either correct, or you lose your entire stake.

Not exactly. Kalshi is binary options. Not stocks.

SCOTUS will probably soon rule that extracting wealth from alienated gamblers is a fundamental American right, that the founding fathers had in mind when drafting the constitution.

There might be a couple more, but there is far less legal gambling in MN than anywhere else I've been in the US (though I have not been everywhere in the past 5 years, and I assume laws have changed enough to ignore experience older than that).

Indian tribal casinos are only legal because they are in a separate country as far as the state is concerned. (they don't bother, but each reservation has a good case to join the UN if they wanted to)

Tribal casinos are a whole different situation given their legal sovereignty.

If you're talking Minnesota its scratch offs and bingo all the way down.

Excluding tribal casinos like Mystic and Grand Casino, MN has Canterbury, Running Aces, bingo, pull tabs, and the state lottery. Horse racing and poker rooms at Canterbury and Running Aces, IIRC no limit betting is not allowed in poker.

Here's some troll food for ya: he's reaching Hacker News level of "noticing"

/s